摘要
分析了风暴潮对工业、农业等的危害,统计了天津市100多a来较大的风暴潮灾害。并利用“最小二乘法”的思想,根据历次风暴潮最高潮位、增水强度及经济损失等资料,建立了评估风暴潮直接经济损失的数学模型y=123.09-47.825x+4.678x2。依据此模型,估算得在不考虑物价因素的情况下,天津市风暴潮灾害造成的直接经济损失总计达14.334亿元。
In this paper, the harm of the storm tides to the industry and agriculture was analyzed. The statistics of the storm tides were done and the times were more in the past than one hundred years in Tianjin. According the highest tide level, the increased water level, economic loss and so on, the theory of ＂least square method＂ was used to establish the mathematical model （y = 123.09 - 47. 825x ＋4. 678x^2 ） to evaluate the economic loss caused directly by the storm tides. Under the help of the model, the direct economic loss because of the storm tides was calculated without the regard to the price, and it equaled to 1. 4334 billion yuan.
出处
《海洋环境科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第3期271-274,共4页
Marine Environmental Science
基金
中国地质大调查项目(24412300031)
关键词
风暴潮
最高潮位
经济损失
评估
storm tide
the highest tide level
economic loss
evaluation
