摘要
针对区域资源环境与社会经济系统的非连续运动特征,基于尖点突变理论构建数学模型对区域资源环境与社会经济系统的突变过程及其响应机制进行定量描述与分析。吉林省社会经济进入快速发展时期,以吉林省作为研究区域进行实例分析,能够为区域社会经济与资源环境协调发展战略的制定与筛选提供技术手段和决策依据。研究结果表明,吉林省经济进入快速增长阶段;矿业的衰退将成为影响吉林省经济持续稳定发展的重要因素;吉林省资源消耗总量与万元产值消耗量的突变,标志着吉林省对钢铁和水泥等大宗固体矿产的消费进入快速增长阶段;受生态省建设战略影响,固体废物、SO2、粉尘的排放总量与万元产值SO2及固体废弃物排放量发生根本性转变,吉林省生态环境进入新的发展时期。
The mathematic model was set up for the description of discontinuous motion of regional resource-environment and society-economy system based on needle mutation theory, and the procedure and response mechanism was researched by taken Jilin province as a case. The results showed that the economy of Jilin province has been in the stage of rapidly developing, and the sustainable development of social economy would be effected by the declined of mining industry. The mutation of total resource consumption and resource consumption per ten thousand product values showed that the consumption of solid mineral resources has been in the stage of rapidly increasing in Jilin province. Total discharge volume of solid waste, SO2, powder dust, and the discharge volume per ten thousand product values of solid waste, SO2 has been mutation. The eco-environment system of Jilin province has been in a new stage by implementing the strategy of eco-province. This study provides technical measure and scientific basis for social economy and resource-environment sustains development.
出处
《生态环境》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第2期579-583,共5页
Ecology and Environmnet
基金
国家973计划项目子课题(2005CB724203)
吉林省环保局科技项目(2005-03)
关键词
吉林省
资源环境
社会经济
尖点突变模型
非连续运动
Jilin province
resource-environment
society-economy
needle mutation model
discontinuous motion
