摘要
基于Granger因果关系及误差修正模型,对山西省电力与总量经济增长的关系及三产业用电量与三产业增加值增长的因果互动关系进行了初步的分析,结果显示,山西省电力与经济增长存在总用电量到总经济增长的Granger因果关系;第一产业与第二产业用电量增长到增加值增长的单向Granger因果关系;第三产业用电量到增加值增长的双向Granger因果关系。从长期均衡来看,山西省总用电量每增加1%,GDP增加1.36%;第一产业用电量增长1%,其增加值增长0.74%;第二产业用电量增长1%,其增加值增长1.57%;其用电量每增加1%,增加值增长1.05%,第三产业增加值每增加1%,其用电量增加0.95%。山西省经济增长尤其是第二产业增加值的增长主要以高耗能工业发展作支撑,山西省在加快电力工业建设与发展的同时,在资源有限的条件下,应进行产业结构调整,做好节能与技术改造工作,促进山西省电力与经济增长的可持续发展。
Based on Granger-causality Model and Error Correction Model, the relationships between electric power and total economy growth, power consumptions and the values added of industries in Shanxi province are studied. The result shows that the unidirectional Granger Causality is running from power consumption to GDP growth, the first and second industries＇ electricity consumption to industries value added. The bidirectional Granger Causality is between the electricity consumption and the value added of the third industry. While power consumption increases by per 1%, GDP increases by 1.36%; power consumption of the first industry increases by per 1%, the value added increases by 0. 74%; power consumption of the second industries increases by per 1%, the value added increases by 1.57% ; power consumption of the third industry increases by per 1%, the value added increases by 1.05%. The growth of GDP, especially the growth of the value added of the second industry mainly depends on the growth of industries with high electricity consumption rate. The industry structure should be readjusted and technology innovation should be carried on in Shanxi province under the condition of resources shortage to promote the sustainable development of Shanxi province＇s power and economy.
出处
《华北电力技术》
CAS
2007年第4期1-4,共4页
North China Electric Power
基金
国家社会科学基金(05CJY020)
关键词
电力
经济增长
产业经济
因果关系
误差修正模型
electric power
economic growth
industry economy
causality
error correction model
