摘要
利用时间序列框架内的格兰杰因果分析、协整技术和向量误差修正模型,本文评价1978—2005年间金融发展与经济增长间的数量联系。实证分析发现,控制政府支出和贸易开放度后,金融体系资金运用和金融深度都是经济增长的格兰杰原因,且都与经济增长正相关。而且,基于自回归分布滞后边界检验和向量误差修正模型,本文也实证检验中国股票市场发展与经济增长关系:分别控制政府支出和贸易开放度后,金融市场总融资额是经济增长的原因,而经济增长是股票市场周转率的格兰杰原因。文章最后给出实证结论和简短的政策建议。
Using Granger-causality analysis , cointegration technique and vector error correction model, this paper estimates the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in China , and finds that financial development is cointegrated with economic growth in data set 1978-2005 , even after controlling public expenditure and trade value （import and export）. Moreover, Including the stock market data set during 1992--2005 and employing the autoregressive distributed lag bounds test approach, Granger-causality test based on vector error correction model reveals mixed conclusions, i. e. , finance aggregates in financial market weakly Granger-cause economic growth, however, economic growth weakly Granger-causes turnover. Finally, this paper provides conclusive remarks and short suggestions.
出处
《财经问题研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第2期47-53,共7页
Research On Financial and Economic Issues
关键词
金融发展
经济增长
协整分析
因果关系
financial development, economic growth, cointegration analysis, causality
