摘要
With the Chinese macro-economy undergoing an accelerating transformation, drastic changes in economic and industrial structures have caused constant readjustments to the employment structure and the unemployment rate has kept rising. It is not clear how large a proportion of the steadily increasing unemployment rate is considered to be natural or normal unemployment. However, this indicator is very important, as quantifying the natural rate of unemployment will enable us to make a more in-depth analysis of the composition of the unemployment rate in China and the changes in its nature and will have important policy implications for the control of unemployment.1 At the same time, the natural rate of unemployment has a bearing on the cost and effect of monetary policy and forms the precondition and key to the implementation ofmonetary policy with a vital guiding significance for the control of inflation.
作为商业周期理论的重要组成部分,NAIRU是一个有价值的分析概念,它简化了宏观经济政策的讨论和选择。在回顾国外测量模型的基础上,本文基于可变参数的假设,构建包含NAIRU变动过程和菲利普斯曲线关系的状态空间模型,应用卡尔曼滤波方法估算出1992-2004年随时间变动的NAIRU曲线。结果显示,自1992年以来,中国具有不断升高的NAIRU,并在2002年达到最大值。其后,NAIRU一直在4.8%￣5.6%的范围内波动,相对稳定。通过回顾近十年来劳动力市场的主要变化,本文从几个方面对NAIRU的上升做出了解释,结构转变的加快和青年就业问题的突出为其主要原因。因此,加强失业者培训体系建设,完善劳动力中介服务体系,对青年就业予以重点关注应成为促进就业的政策取向。
