摘要
酒店逐月客房利用率的预测,对于安排来年人员及物质、设备等是至关重要的,也是计算酒店经济利润,进行成本核算不可缺少的参数.由于客人入住是一个随机过程,难以用准确的分布函数来描述,但作出某些合理的假设后,可将其变为平稳随机过程.用M arkov自回归模型可生成模拟未来年的逐月客房利用率系列,以满足酒店规划、计划、市场营销等方面的需要.以乌鲁木齐市伊斯兰酒店为例,用M arkov模型进行了模拟.
The prediction of hotel＇s room utility monthly is very important to arrange staff and material for the coming year, but also the parameter to evaluate economic profit and make the cost calculation. The registration of vip is in a random, it is difficult to describe by accurate distributed function, but it can be changed to stationary random process after making some rational assumption. Hotel＇s room utility monthly for future years are simulated by Markov Regression Model to meet the need for planning and marketing. This paper simulates the room utility by Markov Model taking Islam Hotel as example.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第4期34-40,共7页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
新疆高校科研计划项目(XJEDU2004S03
XJDEU2005I07)
新疆大学博士启动基金项目(BS050108)
