摘要
考虑铁矿石在钢铁生产过程中的地位,根据物料平衡原理,按照粗钢需求预测-粗钢产量预测-生铁产量预测-铁矿石需求预测的研究思路,利用计量经济软件Eviews,建立中国铁矿石需求量的预测模型,并应用该模型预测中国2005—2010年的铁矿石需求量。预测结果表明中国铁矿石需求呈逐渐增长的趋势,但增长速度趋缓,2010年铁矿石需求总量达到10.210×108t(国产矿石品质矿量)。
In consideration of the significance of iron ore in steel making and based on the material balance principle, a prediction model for China＇s iron ore demand was set up using an econometric software Eviews and a research approach of crude steel demand prediction-crude steel output prediction-pig iron output prediction-iron ore demand prediction. The model was used to forecast China＇s iron demand in 2005 ~ 2010 and the results indicate that China＇s iron ore demand will be in a trend of gradual increase with a reduced increase rate. By 2010, the gross iron ore demand will be reach 10.210 × 10^8 t （with domestic iron ore quality）.
出处
《金属矿山》
CAS
北大核心
2007年第2期6-8,37,共4页
Metal Mine
关键词
铁矿石需求预测
计量经济模型
粗钢
生铁
Iron ore demand prediction, Econometric model, Crude steel, Pig iron
