摘要
朝鲜实施导弹发射和地下核试验,意在实现核拥有,籍以提高对美战略的筹码。朝鲜开展核战略角逐由来已久,先后展开过以守为攻;“边缘”对应;将计就计;以硬对强四个回合。角逐结果虽不乏战术上的小胜,却丧失了战略上的大胜。此番的导弹试射与地下核试验可视为第五个回合,是朝鲜核、导角逐战略“以攻为守”的转换。朝鲜执意实现核拥有纵有多种原因,却因核、导本身所拥有的“双刃剑”作用,带来于己、于他都不利的负面影响。包括:自食其言,愈加难以取信于国际社会;产生连锁反映,引发新一轮的军备竞赛;挑战核不扩散条约,难免遭到更大封杀;破坏合作气氛,延缓统一进程;置中国于尴尬境地,动摇中朝关系基础。朝鲜的“自行其事”难免遭到国际社会更加严厉的抵制。
The aim of carrying out the launching of the missile and underground nuclear test by the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea is to possess of nuclear power realistically, so as to enhance his strategic importance. The Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea has developed strategic competition for a long time, include defense for attack, boundary correspondence, countermine, and kick against the pricks. Although the strategic competition got some small successes but it lost strategic victoriousness. This time, the launching of the missile and underground nuclear test contains five rounds, which is to convert into defense for attack strategic in the competition. Although there are many reasons that the DPRK insisted to own nuclear weapons, it received many negative effects on other countries and itself by reason of the ＂＂ two - edged＂＂ influence of the nuclear and miseries. The effects includes： broke its promises, cannot be believed by the international society; started a chain reflection and a new round of arms race ;it cannot avold a more fierce forcing- out for challenging the Nuclear Non - Proliferation Treaty; it broke the North - South cooperation and postponed the reunited progress; it put China into an awkward place, and shook the base of the relationship of China and DPRK. It is evitable for DPRK to suffer from a more fierce foreing -out by the world becanse of its ＂selfish ways＂.
出处
《东北亚论坛》
CSSCI
2007年第1期48-52,共5页
Northeast Asia Forum
基金
国家科学社会基金项目"朝鲜半岛统一进程及其影响研究"(03BGJ022)
关键词
朝鲜
导弹发射
地下核试验
战略角逐
事态
DPRK, missile hunch, underground nuclear test, Strategic competition, state of affairs
