摘要
在武器装备论证中,常常需要对武器装备进行作战效能评估,而评估结果的可信度也是决策者较为关心的问题。该问题具有一定难度,主要难点在于如何从整个评估过程中寻找和聚集评估的可信度。针对作战效能评估的可信度问题,再现评估过程予以校验分析。从评估底层指标开始,采用多专家进行评定。构建基于证据理论的融合模型来汇集下层指标的可信度,并层层推理聚合,最后获取评价方案的最终信度分布。以某地地导弹主战系统作战效能评估的可信度分析为例,识别结果和原来的仿真评估结果内容大致符合,印证了原评估的结论。这表明该方法有一定的可行性。
It is necessary to evaluate the operational effectiveness of weapon equipment during the equipment definition phase, and moreover, the credibility of evaluation results is also an important factor concerned by decision - makers. It is a challenge for us to find and fuse the credibility of evaluation factors from the whole evaluation process. For the credibility of evaluation results of operational effectiveness of weapon equipment, the process of evaluation needs to be repeated and verified. Begining with the end indexes evaluation, many experts are employed to verify and analyze it. A model based on DS evidence theory is put forth, which can fuse the credible information from all indexes given by experts. Fusing the credibility layer upon layer, the final credibility results distribution of the alternative can be verified. An example about the operational effectiveness evaluaiion on main battle system of surface - surface missile is analyzed in its credibility, and the verified results agree with the original evaluation results based on simulation.
出处
《计算机仿真》
CSCD
2007年第1期68-71,共4页
Computer Simulation
关键词
可信度
作战效能评估
地地导弹
证据理论
Credibility
Operational effectiveness evaluation
Surface - to - surface missile
Evidence theory
