摘要
目的探讨艾滋病高危人群基数估计方法在男性同性恋人群规模估计中的应用。方法选择杭州市中心城区3个同性恋聚集场所连续观察10天，运用除数法获得男性同性恋者人数，应用乘数法对男性同性恋者人群规模进行估计。结果调查期间光顾酒吧、公园、浴室3个同性恋活动场所男性同性恋者共2337人次，可辨识者平均光顾次数为3．79次，采用除数法得到调查期间光顾3个场所总人数为617（571～670）人。采用滚雪球法，经过4轮提名，共调查了342名男性同性恋者，报告调查期间到过酒吧、公园和浴室3个场所的比例为37．72％，获得即乘数为2．65，估计杭州市中心城区艾滋病高危险的男性同性恋人数为1635（1513～1777）人。结论采用乘数法、除数法估计男同性恋人群规模具有推广应用价值。
Objective To explore the application of AIDS high risk group base estimation method in estimating the size of MSM population. Methods Three MSM gathering spots in urban areas of Hangzhou City were selected, and division method was applied in.counting the number of participating MSM within 10 days. Multiplier method was applied in estimating the size of MSM population. Results During the period of investigation, MSM made 2 337 visits to these three spots ,i. e. bars,parks and saunas,with 3.79 visits on average for each identifiable persons. The total number of MSM visiting the three spots was 617 persons （571-670） by using division method. Three hundred and forty two MSM were investigated using snowball sampling after 4 rounds of nominations,of whom 37.72% reported having visited bar,parks and saunas during the period of investigation, and a multiplier of 2.65 was obtained. The total number of MSM in the urban area of Hangzhou was estimated as 1 635 persons （1 513-1 777）. Conclusions Division and multiplier methods are suitable tools to estimate the size of MSM population.
出处
《中国艾滋病性病》
CAS
2006年第6期525-526,共2页
Chinese Journal of Aids & STD
关键词
艾滋病
男性同性恋
规模估计
AIDS
MSM
Estimating the size of MSM population
