摘要
基于对我国煤炭供需的基本分析,本文运用协整理论和误差修正模型建立中国煤炭消费的结构需求模型,并将中国煤炭消费的长期均衡引入到短期预测,从而得到经济增长的总量仍然在较大程度上依赖于煤炭资源的消耗。然而,从得到的误差修正模型来看,第二产业在煤炭消费上呈现出集约化和利用效率提高的趋势。利用格兰杰因果关系检验证实了以上结论。
This paper uses cointegrafion theory and error correction model to build structural demand model of coal consumption on the basis of basic analysis of coal supply and demand of China, and we also introduced long- term balance of Chinese coal to the short- terra forecast, thus we obtained that the total quantity of economy growth still relies on the coal resources consumption in great degree. However, from the error correction model, the coal consumption of second industry shows high efficiency tendency. This paper uses Granger causality tests verify above conclusions,
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第12期108-114,共7页
Finance & Economics
关键词
煤炭消费量
协整
误差修正模型
格兰杰因果关系
coal consumption
cointegration
error correction model
Granger causality tests
