摘要
菲利普斯曲线的变动轨迹与经济周期阶段关系密切,随着经济周期阶段的变化,菲利普斯曲线揭示的失业率和通货膨胀率之间的变动关系也会发生相应变化。通过对中国菲利普斯曲线与经济周期阶段关系做理论分析、图形分析、回归分析,可以判断出改革开放以来(准确地说是20世纪80年代初以来),菲利普斯曲线的变动轨迹与经济周期阶段大致吻合,这为判断我国经济周期阶段提供了重要参考,即当前菲利普斯曲线的类型或形状可以为经济周期阶段的判断提供佐证。
The relation between the motion track of Phillips Curve and phases of business cycle is close. According to the change of business cycle phase, relation between unemployment rate and inflation rate also changes correspondingly. It provides important references for analyzing phases of business cycle in China： The styles and shapes of Phillips Curve may provide proof for analyzing phases of business cycle.
出处
《山西财经大学学报》
CSSCI
2006年第5期1-6,共6页
Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(05JA630015)
关键词
菲利普斯曲线
经济周期阶段
回归分析
相关系数
Phillips Curve
phases of business cycle
regression analysis
correlation coefficient
