摘要
应用数学生态学的有关理论与方法,结合生态足迹的概念,提出了一种生态足迹时间序列的新的趋势外推分析方法;并以甘肃省河西绿洲农业区为研究对象,对其生态足迹进行了趋势外推分析的实例计算。结果表明,本研究中的趋势外推分析方法在生态足迹时间序列分析中的应用能够取得较好的结果;但模型本身的不足使其在实际数据存在短期剧烈波动时,拟合的结果与实际值之间存在较大的差距。本研究提出的包含随机影响的趋势外推分析方法进一步补充和完善了原有生态足迹分析方法的不足,在理论和实践中都有较高的指导和应用价值。
Based on the relative theories of biomathematics, a new approach to trend extrapolation of time series of ecological footprints is proposed in this paper. Materials for analysis were taken from the agricultural areas of oases in the Hexi region of Gansu province as an example. The results show that this approach of trend extrapolation better fitted the application on time series of ecological footprints. However, in the case of, shortterm acute fluctuations among time series data, it was not accurate because of the large disparity between the theoretical data that the model deduced and the practical data. The approach of trend extrapolation, involving stochastic influences, overcame the shortcomings of the original method of ecological footprint analyses and the improvements have significance for both theoretical direction and practical implications.
出处
《草业学报》
CSCD
2006年第5期129-134,共6页
Acta Prataculturae Sinica
基金
国家社会科学重点项目(04AJL007)
国家自然科学基金(30470298)资助
关键词
生态足迹
时间序列
趋势外推
河西绿洲
ecological footprint
time series
trend extrapolation
oasis in Hexi region
