摘要
According to the ＂Netlike Plastic-Flow （NPF）＂ continental dynamics model, the transition of the deformation regime from brittle in shallow layers to ductile in deep layers in the lithosphere, and the controlling effect of NPF in the lower lithosphere result in intraplate multilayer tectonic deformation. NPF is a viscous （plastic） flow accompanied by shear strain localization, forming a plastic-flow network in the lower lithosphere. The strain rates in the seismogeulc layer can be estimated using the ＂earthquake-recurrence-interval＂ method, in which the strain rate is calculated in terms of the recurrence interval of two sequential earthquakes and the seismic probability of the second earthquake. The strains in the lower lithosphere are estimated using the ＂conjugate-angle＂ method, which takes the relationship between the conjugate angles and the compressive strains of the network, and calculates the characteristic strain rates in this layer from the strains and the durations of deformation inferred. The contour map of characteristic maximum principal compressive strain rates in the lower lithosphere in central-eastern Asia given in the paper shows strain rates with magnitudes on the order of 10^-15 - 10^-14/s in this region. The strain rates within the plastic-flow belts, which control seismic activities in the seismogeulc layer, are greater than the characteristic strain rates of the network and, in addition, the strain rates and seismic activities in the seismogeulc layer are also influenced by other factors, including the directive action of driving boundary along the upper crust, the effects of plastic-flow waves and the existence of the transitional weak layer distributed discontinuously between the upper and lower layers. The comparison between the strain rates in the seismogeulc layer and the characteristic strain rates in the lower lithosphere for 11 potential hypocenter areas in the region from the Qinghai-Xizang （Tibet） plateau to the North China plain indicates that, except for the considerable deviation in the Linfen basin, Shanxi Province, the linear correlation between the strain rates in the upper and lower layers is obvious for all other 10 areas with a slope β= 1.75 ±0.5 （i.e. the ratio of strain rate in the upper layer to that in the lower one）. It is suggested that the contour map of characteristic strain rates together with the ratio β can be used to approximate the strain rates of potential hypocenters in medium- and long-term earthquake predictions, and the effects of driving boundaries and relative stable blocks on the hypocenter areas should be considered as sufficiently as possible for taking the β values properly.
根据“网状塑料流动(NPF ) ”大陆人动力学模型，变丑政体从的转变在浅层到易碎在在岩石圈，和在在 intraplate 的更低的岩石圈结果的 NPF 的控制效果的深层可锻多层的构造变丑。NPF 是一粘滞(塑料) 流动伴随了由砍种类本地化，在更低的岩石圈形成一个塑料流动的网络。在 seismogenic 层的紧张率能用方法，紧张率在是以二顺序的 carthquakes 的复发间隔和第二地震的地震概率计算了的“ earthquake-recurrence-interval ”被估计。在更低的岩石圈的紧张用方法，它拿在 conjugate 角度和网络的压缩紧张之间的关系，并且计算典型紧张从紧张和推断的变丑的持续时间在这层评估的“结合角度”被估计。在在在纸给的中央东方的亚洲的更低的岩石圈的典型最大的主要压缩紧张率的轮廓地图在这个区域大概 10-15 10-14/s 与大小显示出紧张率。在塑料流动的带以内的紧张率，在 seismogenic 层控制地震活动，比典型紧张网络评价，另外，紧张评价的大，在 seismogenic 层的地震活动被另外的因素也影响，包括沿着上面的外壳驾驶边界的指令行动，塑料流动的波浪和过渡的弱层的存在的效果在上面、更低的层之间不连续地散布了在在 seismogenic 层和典型紧张的紧张率之间的比较从 Qinghai-Xizang (西藏)高原在这个区域为 11 个潜在的 hypocenter 区域在更低的岩石圈评价到北方中国平原显示那，除了在 Linfen 盆的可观的偏差，山西省，在在上面、更低的层的紧张率之间的线性关联为有斜坡=的所有另外的 10 个区域是明显的 1.
基金
Supported bythe Joint Earthquake Science Foundation of China(grant 199061)
Contribution No.2005B0011 of the Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration.
