摘要
根据工程系统的可分解性，将水电工程总体造价分解成若干个子工程造价。用模糊数学贴近度原理，建立子工程造价的模糊估算模型；运用主观估计法，估计出各个子工程造价随机变化的期望值和方差。然后依据概率论多元随机变量理论，推出水电工程总体造价概率分布的期望值和方差，并确定了造价随机变化的概率分布关系曲线。该估计方法客观、全面地反映了工程造价的实际随机变化特性。
Estimation of construction cost is the important link in the earlier stage of the hydropower engineering. It is influenced by a lot of uncertainty factors with the randomness. In this paper, the construction cost is decomposed into several subconstruction costs according to the decomposability of system. The fuzzy estimation model of subconstruction cost is established by employing the near-degree thoery in fuzzy mathematics. Based on the subjective estimation method, value of expectation and variance of several subconstruction were determined. Then, expected value and variance of total construction cost of hydropower engineering were deduced by using theory of multivariate stochastic variable and the relation curve was defined between cost and probatility. This estimation method objectively reflects the realistic change characteristic of construction cost.
出处
《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第1期113-118,共6页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
关键词
工程造价
模糊贴近度
概率估计
造价估算
construction cost
fuzzy near-degree
probability estimation
cost estimation
