摘要
定量风险分析是高质量风险管理中不可或缺的部分,但是传统的关键路径进度分析方法未能有效地考虑项目中的风险。首先引入风险图的概念,使用概率分布来描述项目中的风险,在此基础上详细地论述基于蒙特卡洛模拟技术的进度风险定量分析方法,最后介绍了一种比较成熟的进度风险定量分析工具。从而提供了一套完整的思路实现软件项目进度风险的定量分析,其核心思想也适用于成本风险的定量分析。
Quantitative risk analysis is a necessary part of a quality risk management process. However, the traditional critical path method （CPM） scheduling doesn＇t take risks into consideration. The definition of risk diagram is introduced, and the risk management process is analyzed with probability. Then an effective methodology for schedule risk analysis is discussed in detail, which is based on Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, a useful quantitative risk analysis tool is also recommended. A model is proposed for software project schedule risk quantitative analysis, much of the discussion is applicable to the analysis of cost risk.
出处
《计算机工程与设计》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第18期3439-3441,共3页
Computer Engineering and Design
关键词
风险
风险管理
风险分析
进度风险分析
蒙特卡洛模拟
risk
risk management
risk analysis
schedule risk analysis
Monte Carlo simulation
