摘要
发布某地震危险区的地震预报之科学决策门限值m·σ_x取决于: 1)该区当时的发震概率P_c; 2)检验概率Q_d(它反映了与信噪比有关的前兆检测能力); 3)预报效益K(是报准一次某级地震的收益与错报一次地震的损失的比值,通常由震灾估计中求得)。 本文推求了Pc、Q_d值,并最终给出了不同情况下的地震预报决策门限值m·σ_x。在大多数情况下,m·σ_x大于2.6x。
The threshold value m·σx of scientific decision-making for issuing earthquake prediction in an earthquake-risk region depends on:1. The probability Pc of earthquake occurrence in this region at that time;2. Detection probability Qd which reflects the precursory detection capacity related to the signal-to-noise ratio d;3. the forecast benefit K (e. i. the ratio of the benefit of correstly forecasting an earthquake with a certain magnitude to the loss of a false alarm that is usually extracted from the earthquake disaster estimation).In this paper Pc and Qd values are calculated and then the earthquake prediction decision-making threshold values, m ·σx in various cases are finally given, tn most cases, m ·σx is greater than 2·σx .
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第1期30-36,共7页
Earthquake
