摘要
介绍并解析随机过程理论中的马尔科夫过程与马尔科夫链;针对高等院校教师人才流动变化过程,利用马尔科夫过程分析方法建立描述人员流动变化趋势的Markov-chain预测模型,详细阐述了模型的算法步骤.以某所高等院校教师人才流动的状态转移数据作为算例,运用新建立的预测模型,对该院校教师人才的流动趋势做出了预测分析.最后,将教师进修状态纳入分析范围,进行了教师职业生涯和职务发展趋势预测的深入分析.应用模型对实际算例的求解结果表明:Markov-chain预测模型及算法,叙述简洁、运算方便,为高等院校教师人才流动,乃至其他行业人才流动的预测提供了一种新的、有效的思路和方法.
This paper introduces and analyzes Markov process and Markov chain of stochastic process theory firstly. Then, aiming at the process of talents flowage in institutions of higher education, it presents a forecasting model named Markov-chain forecasting model which can describe the tendency of the talents flowage, and elaborates the algorithm step in detail. With the dada of state - transfer of teachers of one college as an example, it makes the tendency forecast analysis by means of the model. Finally, it also takes the state of teachers taking advanced courses into consideration, carries on thorough analysis of the teacher profession and development tendency forecast. Operation result indicates that the Markov-chain forecasting model and the algorithm is succinct and convenient, which offers a new idea for forecasting the trend of talents flowage in organizations.
出处
《南京师范大学学报（工程技术版）》
CAS
2006年第3期75-78,共4页
Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Engineering and Technology Edition)
