摘要
本文介绍、评述了气候突变及其有关的一些概念,并应用突变检验方法对我国16个敏感性站点510年来旱涝灾情作了分析。
During recent years,the occurrence of abrupt climatic changes during the earth's history has aroused much interest. Recent investigations have shown the occurrence of catastrophes in the behavior of radically simplified deterministic climate models, and the existence of Abrupt Climatic change in the past times.There might be various kinds of abrupt changes existed in the climatic system, but two types of abrupt climatic change were usefull.Type 1 was a simple state change, i.e., a repid and statistically significant change in some observed measure of the climate system s regime that occured in the absence of any fundamental change in the system's structure,or any long-term change in its external boundary conditions, such as the first killing frost, and the onset of the monsoon. Type 2 is a rapid change of climate that reflects a long-term change in the system's bounmdary conditions. Such events must occur occasionally,for example, as slow tectonically driven changes in geography permit new nodes of atmospheric or oceanic circulation.The analysis of abrupt climatic change has been made by the test of Mann-Kendall. The efficiency of this nonparametric test has been demonstrated by many authors. Therefore in this paper,Abrupt change of dryness/wetness dis-ater of sensitive 16 spots of China in past 500 yr have been detected by means of the Mann-Kendall rank statistic. The result suggests that the main abrupt spots of dryness/wetness disater distributed in five time-logs, they are.1500-1550 yr1600-1650 yr 1800-1830 yr1720-1740 yr 1900-1940 yrThe time-logs (tabulated in the left,4/5 of all cases) of abrupt change happened simutaneously with the transition from cold to warm. Since most abrupt cases in our study were correlated with the warming trends. If the futurs warming trend induced by CO2 x 2 in the atmosphere, it may be deduced that the instabiligy of dryness/wetness disasters in sensible spots may be increased in terms of our result
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第2期92-100,共9页
Geographical Research
关键词
气候
突变
检验
旱涝
灾情
Abrupt change test,Abrupt Climatic change,tensitive spot
