摘要
根据广西160多个乡(镇)猪种布鲁氏菌病(简称猪种布病)监测资料,应用模糊数学方法,建立人间猪种布病流行类型的一个Fuzzy动态数学模型。使用1985年资料,验证模型与人间感染率划分的流行类型符合率达90％以上。利用这个数学模型,可以预报广西各疫区乡(镇)近期(2～3年)内人间猪种布病属于何种流行类型。经过三年现场考核验证结果,预测的符合率达90％。
Based on surveillance information obtained from 160 conmunities and towns, a fuzzy mathematical model on the prevalent type of human brucellosis caused by B. suis in Guangxi was established. It was demonstrated that the coincidence of the model with the actual situation could be as high as 90%. Therefore, the prevalent type of human brucellosis in any community or town in Guangxi can be predicted by the model 2-3 years before it really occures.
出处
《地方病通报》
1990年第1期101-105,共5页
Endemic Diseases Bulletin
关键词
布鲁氏菌病
流行病学
数学模型
Swine brucellosis
Human
Epidemiology
Methematical model
Markov chain
Transition probability
Forecast
