摘要
采用经改进的农业生态区域法计算福建省29个代表站水稻、小麦、甘薯三种作物气候—土壤生产力,详细分析了福建各农业区粮食作物气候—土壤生产力的构成特点;利用历史数据对影响福建省粮食安全的主要因素包括耕地面积、粮食单产和人口进行了时空变化分析和预测(2050年),以分析未来福建省的粮食安全程度。结果表明:福建省人均粮食占有严重不足,不足低消费水平(400kg a-1人-1)的态势将持续相当长一段时间,粮食安全形势十分严峻,在闽东南、闽南一带尤为突出。为此,本文提出了保证福建省粮食安全的对策建议。
By applying the improved Kassarn-Wageningen method - the model of Agro-ecological zone, the crop produetivity of flee, wheat and sweet potato in Fujian Province was calculated. The composing characteristics of the elimate-soil productivity of grain crops in the different areas in Fujian Province was analyzed. Spatial and temporal changes of main factors which affected the food security of Fujian Province, such as the area of cultivated land, unit area yield of grain crop and population, were analyzed and predicted. The results showed that the amount of grain food per capital in Fujian Province was seriously lack. The consumable grain food was below 400 kg per capital per year and this trend would not be changed in a quite long period, particularly in the Southeast and South of Fujian Province. The response recommendations to ensure the food security were put forward.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2006年第3期175-178,182,共5页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
福建省科技厅农业科技攻关计划重点项目"福建省农业生态环境动态变化及区划研究"(2004N018)
关键词
粮食生产潜力
粮食安全对策
福建省
Productivity of grain crop
Food security strategy
Fujian Province
