摘要
针对公路交通系统在准确预测交通运量时的棘手问题,引进灰色预测GM(1,1)模型进行预测.同时又不拘泥于固定模型,通过翔实的定性分析,在建模中对系统原始数据做出有选择的变换生成,切实做到将定性分析与定量分析有机结合,预期效果得到验证,有效提高了模型精度,对交通运量作出了较为准确的预测,希望能对相关部门和人员把握运输市场或进行决策有所裨益.
Aiming at solving the demanding problem of road traffic system in exacdy forecasting the traffic freight volume, an introduction is made into the Grey Model GM（ 1,1 ） for forecasting. At the same time, it doesn＇t stand upon the fixed model, and through full and accurate qualitative analysis, some selective changes are brought to initial data by organically combining the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis in the course of modeling . It turns out that the excepted effect gains verification, effectively improves the model accuracy, makes more exact forecasting, which expects to be helpful to concerned departments and personnel for them to grasp the traffic market trend or make decision.
出处
《昆明理工大学学报（理工版）》
2006年第4期98-103,共6页
Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)
