摘要
文章应用时间序列模型ARIMA（2，2，1）模型，对临安市山核桃1950～2004年的单位面积平均产量进行了模拟，模型拟合效果显著，用所得模型预测了2005～2014年10年临安市山核桃单位面积产量和总产量。结果表明：临安市山核桃总产量时序变化趋势是平稳上升的，产业发展明显分为4个时期：1950～1968年的破坏期，1969～1981年的恢复期，1982～2000的发展期，2001年以后的快速发展期。但山核桃单位面积产量属较低水平，经营水平亦低。
Using ARIMA （2,2,1） model , the paper analysed the unit area yield of Juglans sieboldiana Maxim. in 1950 - 2004 year in Lin＇an city, Zhejiang province. The fitting effect of the modle were obvious and the yield of the future ten years were predicted as so on. According to the model, the total yield of Juglans sieboldiana Maxim. in Lin＇an city were increased steadily in the past years. The production development could easily be divided into four stages, 1 ）Damage stage, form 1950 to 1968. 2）restoring stage, from 1969 to 1981.3）Developing stage, form 1982 to 2000,4） Quickly developing stage, After 2000 year. However, the unit area yield didnt increased in the past years.
出处
《广东林业科技》
2006年第3期22-25,共4页
Forestry Science and Technology of Guangdong Province
关键词
时间序列模型
单位面积平均产量
山核桃
time sequence model, unit area yield, Juglans sieboldiana Maxim.
