摘要
目的了解车辆、道路、人口、交通管理对重大、特大交通事故变化趋势的影响，从而找出最为密切相关的因素。方法采用回顾性调查研究的方法，收集1993～1997年间上海市9个区的人口、道路、车辆、交通管理措施方面的资料，进行多因素回归分析。结果进入回归方程的变量包括交通流量（X1）、车行道宽度（X3）、交通警务（X4），回归方程为：Y=23．9225＋0．0071X1～0．0884X3-0．112OX4，决定系数为0．7451。其中交通流量与交通事故发生呈正相关，其标准化偏回归系数为0．6358，车行道宽度、交通警务与道路交通事故发生成负相关，其标准化偏回归系数分别为-0．7109、-0．2497。经共线性诊断和残差分析，证明进入模型的各自变量之间不存在强相关性，且模型的残差亦呈正态性分布。结论人口增加、车辆增多带来交通流量的增加，导致交通事故的增加；但另一方面采取积极措施拓宽道路，改善交通状况，加强交通管理，也会有效遏制道路交通事故的发生。
Objective To understand the influence of factors such as population, road, vehicle, administration and measure of traffic on the occurrence of grave traffic accident, and find out the most related factors among those as mentioned before. Methods A retrospective survey was carried out in the city zone of Shanghai from 1993 to 1997. The data about population, road, vehicle, administration and measure of traffic were collected. Regression model was used to analyse the data. Results Traffic flow （X1 ）, width of roadway （X3 ）, traffic controlling （X4） were selected in the multiple regression model. The coefficient of determination was 0. 745 1. Through the collinearity diagnosis and residual analysis, it proved that there was not strong correlation between the three independent variables, and the residual of the model belongs to normalize distribution. Conclusions The results revealed that the increasing of population and traffic, the traffic flow aggrandize, which could lead to the enhance of traffic injury. On the other hand, by adopting effective measure, strengthening regulation of traffic, we could also prevent the occurrence of the traffic injury.
出处
《疾病控制杂志》
CAS
2006年第4期380-382,共3页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention
关键词
事故
交通
流行病学
Traffic, accidents
Epidemiology
