摘要
以欧州中心数值预报产品为基础，采用ＥＥＯＦＳ展开选取“典型场”作为数值预报产品的信息，以统计释用方法研究建立的，可以应用于南海区的热带气旋路径业务预报方法。该方法于１９９４年台汛期参加由广东省气象局主持的“关于热带气旋预报业务预试验项目”，进行了９个台风的共１４次预报试验，平均误差２４ｈ为１８７ｋｍ。
Based on ECMWF numerical prediction products, a operational satistical numerical interpretation forecast system of the South China sea tropical cyclone tracks is built by means of EEOFS method. In the summer of 1994, The fourteen real time forecasting for the tracks of nine tropical cyclone is performed under the program of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau for “Tropical Cyclone Operational Experimental Forecast”, and the average errors are 187km for 24hr,352km for 48hr.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
1996年第3期272-279,共8页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
关键词
热带气旋
路径
数值预报
业务系统
Tropical cyclone track Numerical prediction interpretation Extended empirical orthogonal function(EEOF)
