摘要
根据哈达门国家森林公园的票房数据，应用灰色系统理论建立游客量灰色动态模型。基此，对哈园游客量进行了中短期预测，其预测检验精度为９３．７２。旨在对该园建设、管理等项决策提供科学依据。
Based oii the data (tourist an1otints from 1990 to 1995) of Ha Da Men Nation-al Forest Park and the grey system theory,a forecast model of the tourist amount in thatpark was set up.According to the model,a short-term forecasting(1996-2000) or a middle-long term(for 2005)forecasting was made. The average precision of that forecasting was94.77%.The forecasting results provided the scientific basis for policy-making of constructand management of the park.
基金
内蒙古科委计划项目资助
关键词
森林公园
游客量
动态预测
forst park
grey model
tourist amount
trends forecasting
