摘要
本文基于北票矿区井下1800多米巷道跟踪考查,提出了用三率(预测突出率、预测突出准确率、预测突出威胁准确率)优选敏感指标及临界值的方法。通过对五种单项和综合指标的比较,选出其中最佳的工作面突出预测综合指标F,标志突出危险的临界值为F≥1.7。采用该指标进行工作面预测时,预测突出危险的准确率为62.3%,预测突出威胁的准确率为98.2%。
Based on outburst prediction measurements conducted in 1800m coal roadway, a method for determining sensitive prediction index and critical value was set up with3 parameters (the outburst prediction rate, the outburst hazard prediction accuracy and the outburst threat prediction accuracy). By considering the data of the pridiction indices for 5 types faces, the comprehensive index F was finally chosen and the critical value F was higher and equal to 17,with the outburst prediction accuracy reaching 62.3% and the outburst threat prediction accuracy of 98.2%.
