摘要
介绍了大坝安全监测目前常用的3种变形模型的优缺点和系统辨识的基本原理,在此基础上将系统辨识理论引入到拱坝变形的模型研究中。以MatLab软件中的系统辨识工具包为平台,建立以库水位、气温和时间为输入,坝体监测变形为输出的李家峡拱坝监测变形多输入单输出系统辨识模型,并应用损失函数和AIC准则等对模型的预测精度进行了分析判断,验证了系统辨识模型的方法的可行性和预测性的可靠性,研究工作对其他水工建筑物的安全监测变形模型的建立具有一定的参考价值。
The merits and drawbacks of three conventional dam safety-monitoring models and the system identification principles are introduced. The system identification theory has been introduced into the study on the arc-dam deformation model. Through the platform of system identification tools of MatLab Software, a system identification model is built up with the inputs of water level, temperature and date, and the output of dam monitoring deformation. And the prediction accuracy is analyzed through an instance by using the loss function and the AIC criterion. The predication feasibility of this system identification model and the forecast reliability of this method are verified. The paper also has the reference value for establishing safety monitoring deformation model for other hydraulic structures.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2006年第5期78-80,共3页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
系统辨识
拱坝变形监测
预测
辨识
system identification
arc-dam deformation monitoring
prediction
identification
