摘要
从模型分析的角度,分析了由洪水风险、防洪工程风险、防洪投资风险、洪泛区风险、洪水生态环境风险和防洪决策风险6个方面所组成的洪灾综合风险特征,构建以洪水为中心的洪灾风险链的微观结构.应用概率论方法,给出了相应的量化概念模型,并提出了具体的研究路线.最后,对洪灾综合风险的结构进行了系统分析,为深入探讨洪灾综合风险分析与管理的具体方法、模型及防洪对策提供了总体研究框架与思路.
From the point of view of model, the microstructure of the risk chain, which consists of flood risk, engineering risk, investment risk, floodplain risk, flood eco-environment risk and decision-making risk for flood control, is structured regarding flood as the center. The corresponding quantitative conceptual model of them are constructed by probability theory. The technical course of whole-length study is bought forward along the progress. Besides, systematic analysis of the constitution of integrated risk has been carried out in the end; the total frame and thinking way are put forward for go deep in inquiring into the integrated risk analysis and management of the flood disaster with concrete method, model and flood-control countermeasures.
出处
《武汉大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第2期5-10,共6页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目课题(50099624)
国家自然科学基金项目(50579019)
武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金资助项目(whu2005B018)
关键词
洪水灾害
综合风险
风险结构
微观结构
flood disaster integrated risk risk constitution microstructure
