摘要
对1960～2002年盛夏（7～9月）在南海中北部海域活动的热带气旋，引入欧洲中心（ECMWF）数值预报格点资料，采用移动坐标，选用有关热带气旋自身特征变量及环境场等物理量动力因子，用多元回归方法，建立热带气旋强度的动力统计预报模式，结果表明该模式较单纯靠天气学经验的预报能力有明显提高。
Regarding to the tropical cyclone in the mid-north part of South China Sea in midsummer （July- September） during 1996～2002, this paper adopts the numerical forecasting grid data of European center （ECMWF） and uses the motion coordinates and selects physical quantity dynamic factors such as the related tropical cyclone own characteristic variable and environment field and so on to establishes the dynamic statistics forecast pattern of the tropical cyclone intensity with multiple regression method. The result indicates that this model improves the forecast ability obviously rather than only depends on the synoptic meteorology experience.
出处
《广西气象》
2006年第1期4-5,共2页
Journal of Guangxi Meteorology
基金
桂攻关0322022-4项目资助
关键词
南海中北部
热带气旋强度
动力统计预报
.mid-north part of South China Sea
Tropical cyclone intensity
Dynamic statistics forecast
