摘要
工程应用表明,基于概率理论的风险分析模型并不是十分理想的模型,因为它需要有足够的原始数据来描述不确定参数的概率特征.本文基于粘性土降水沉降量计算参数符合区间分析的特点,采用区间理论建立风险评价模型和满足不同需要的两个风险评价指标.通过举例分析,验证了风险评价模型和指标的客观性和可操作性,为岩土工程计算结果的风险评价提供了一种新方法.
Risk analysis model based on probability theory is not ideal in engineering application by reason that it needs so sufficient raw data to describe the probability characteristic of uncertain parameter. On the basis of the feature that the calculated parameter of Predicting Subsidence in Dewatered Cohesive Soil is adapt to interval analysis theory, the risk assessment model and two risk assessment indexes of satisfying different needs were established by using interval theory. By researching the engineering example, the objectivity and operability of the established n-odel and indexes were illustrated, and an effective method was provided for assessing risk about the calculated results in rock and soil engineering.
出处
《北京交通大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第1期1-4,共4页
JOURNAL OF BEIJING JIAOTONG UNIVERSITY
基金
教育部博士后基金资助项目(2005037303)
关键词
岩土工程风险分析
区间理论
沉降量预测
风险评价模型
风险评价指标
risk analysis for rock and soil engineering
interval theory
predicting subsidence
risk assessment model
risk assessment index
