摘要
为模拟生牡蛎消费引起副溶血性弧菌(VP)疾病的危险性,在福建省开展了定量微生物危险性评估。评估遵循广泛认可的危险性评估程序,涉及危害识别、危害特征描述、暴露评估和危险性特征描述。结合暴露评估模块的结果与贝塔-泊松剂量反应模型,推测由消费VP污染的生牡蛎导致疾病发生的危险性分别是6.9×10-7(冬)、1.7×10-5(春)、5.9×10-5(夏)、4.6×10-6(秋)。敏感性分析结果表明,零售期间牡蛎的未冷藏时间、零售带壳牡蛎体VP密度的对数值、冷却持续时间和气温等因素,与疾病发生的危险性显著相关。采取缩短零售期间牡蛎的未冷藏时间、快速冷却、微热处理和冷冻贮存等控制措施,能够明显降低疾病发生的人数。该研究为我国制定减少VP对公众健康影响的政策提供了理论依据。
A quantitative microbial risk assessment was undertaken to model the risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus foodbome illness associated with the consumption of raw oysters in Fujian Province, China. The assessment was conducted in accordance with the widely accepted procedures for risk assessment, which involves hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The outcome of the exposure assessment modules was combined with a beta-poisson doseresponse model, predicting the risk of illness associated with the consumption of V. parahaemolyticus-contaminated raw oysters to be 6.9 × 10^-7 , 1.7 × 10^-3 , 5.9 × 10^-5 and 4.6 × 10^-6 for winter, spring, summer and fall, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the risk of illness was significantly correlated with the time unrefrigerated at retail, Log V. parahaemolyticus level in the retail shell oysters, duration of cooldown and the ambient air temperature. Implementing control measures, including reduce time unrefrigerated, rapid cooling, mild heat treatment, and freezing, may substantially reduce the number of illnesses.
出处
《中国食品卫生杂志》
2006年第2期103-108,共6页
Chinese Journal of Food Hygiene
基金
国家科技部"十五"攻关项目(2001BA804A36)
社会公益基金项目(2002DIA30016
2004DIB2J064)
关键词
牡蛎
副溶血性弧菌
定量微生物危险性评估
蒙特卡洛模拟
控制措施
Oysters
Vibrio parahaemolyticus
Quantitative microbial risk assessment
Monte Carlo simulation
Control measure
