摘要
船舶横摇运动是对船舶航行影响最大的运动,研究船舶横摇运动的建模与预报对于提高船舶适航性、耐波性有重要意义。根据船舶在随机海浪作用下的运动特性,运用时间序列分析方法建立了AR模型,并将其应用于船舶横摇运动时间序列预报,取得了较好的效果。仿真结果表明,预报误差为4.4%左右。时间序列分析法亦可用于船舶纵摇、艏摇的时间序列预报,该方法在工程中具有很大的实用价值。
Because ship rolling is the heaviest motion of a ship in waves,it is important to study ship roll- ing modeling and prediction in order to improve ship＇ s seaworthiness and wave-resistance. Based on the motion characteristics of ship under random waves, the AR model and prediction algorithm for time series analysis are given in this paper. The experiments of ship roiling time series prediction are done on the ground of the time series analysis. The results performed well. The simulation results show that the prediction error is 4.4%. The time series analysis can also be used in ship pitching and heaving time series prediction. These indicate that the prediction method is valuable for engineering practice.
出处
《北京机械工业学院学报》
2006年第1期4-7,共4页
Journal of Beijing Institute of Machinery
基金
国防科工委预研基金项目(43.1.6.1.)
关键词
AR模型
船舶横摇运动
时间序列预报
auto-regressive model
ship rolling
time series prediction
