摘要
本文根据１９５０～１９９４年福建省疫情资料分析传染病消长趋势。结果表明：福建省传染病死因由５０年代的首位降至８０年代的第９位；１９７７年以来，总发病率年平均递减１６．６％，呈指数曲线趋势（Ｙ＝１９６７．４４２１６ｅ^（－０．１５０３９３ｔ），Ｒ~２＝０．９３２）。但结合主动监测资料分析，９０年代估计（实际）发病率为报告发病率的３．１～３．４倍，以肠道传染病和血源及性传播疾病为主，性病趋于上升，初步提示主要与人口流动、国际间交流与日俱增等因素有关。
The epidemic trend of Fujian notifiable infectious disease from 1950 to 1994 was analysed in this paper.It indicated that the infectious mortality was declined from the first sequence in 1950's to the ninth in 1980's.Since 1977,the total morbidity has been decreased by the rate of 16.6%,the function of exponential curve was y=1967.44216e-0.15039t,(R2=0.992). On the other hand, the data from active surveillance system of infectious diseases indicated that the estimated(actural)morbidity in 1990's was as 3.1-3.4 times as in routine reportiong system.The major diseases were intestinal,blood and sexual infectious diseases,STD was going up.This may be related to population moving and growing international exchanges.
出处
《海峡预防医学杂志》
CAS
1996年第1期3-5,共3页
Strait Journal of Preventive Medicine
关键词
传染病
流行趋势
趋势分析
notifiable infectious diseases,epidemic trend,mortality,morbidity
