摘要
采用极值理论求得岗贝尔分布b值,可以克服目前广泛使用的求b值的方法对资料要求高的弱点。根据中强地震发生前小震出现偏离泊松分布的现象,构造泊松分布符合度Yn值。将这两种参数具体应用于银川-河套地震带和祁连山-六盘山地震带进行预测检验。结果表明在两个区域岗贝尔分布b值和泊松分布符合度Yn值对中强地震映震效果均较好。
Using the extreme value theory, b-value conforming to Gubmel distribution is caculated to replace normal b-value method,which needs higher quality data. According to the phenomenon that seismicity diverging Poisson distribution before moderate-strong earthquake, Pois- son distribution coincident degree Yn-value is given. The new parameters then are applied in Yinchuan-Hetao and Qilian Mt. -Liupan Mt. seismic belts for prediction test. The result shows that the b-value and Yn-value are correlated well with moderate-strong earthquakes.
出处
《西北地震学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第2期141-145,共5页
Northwestern Seismological Journal
关键词
岗贝尔分布
泊松分布符合度
地震预报
Gubmel distribution
Coincident degree of Poisson distribution
Earthquake prediction
