摘要
讨论了中国近海（渤、黄、东、南海）开阔洋面上求算不同重现期大风极值的资料和方法。在没有定点连续气象观测条件下，综合分析现有岛屿站观测、台风记录、船舶报告、数值模式计算风速，分别组成年大风极值序列，使用多种分布模型拟合大风序列，通过检验选定最佳取值。研究结果表明，在拟合各类大风序列时，三参数Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布显示较强的适用性；而由波浪谱模式和台风风场模式计算风速组成的序列求取不同重现期大风极值，计算结果稳定，气候分布合理。
n this paper the data and methods used to estimate the extreme wind speed for different return periods over the China Sea (Bo Hai.Yellow Sea,East China Sea and South China Sea) have been discussed. Since lack of successive meteorological observation at stationary sites over the sea region,comprehensive informations for the island observations,typhoon records,ship reports and modelling data of wind speed data were used to establish the annual maximum wind speed series. The four kinds of statistical models (Extreme type Ⅰ, Lognormal.Weibull. Pearson Ⅲ) were used to fit those data series of the maximum wind speed. Test rasults have showed that Weibull distribution with three parameters has greater suitability. and the estimated extreme wind speed using the series combined SOWM data with typhoon model date were more stable and seasonable.
出处
《气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第2期233-239,共7页
Acta Meteorologica Sinica
基金
中国气象局气象科技短平快项目资助
关键词
中国
近海
大风极值
计算法
大风
hina Sea
Extreme wind speed
Calculating method.
