摘要
大尺度资料稀缺地区的水文预报近来已经成为水文研究的热点之一。水文模型是水文预报的重要工具,具有物理基础的水文模型已经广泛的用于水循环研究、流域水资源规划和管理中。水文模型是否适用于某一特定的研究区域取决于模型的结构、水文气象资料以及可获取的下垫面资料的代表性,大、中尺度的水文模拟尤其如此。本文选取具有物理基础的分布式水文模型VIC-3L来研究大尺度资料稀缺地区水文模拟的可行性。以黄河源区为研究区域,将本区内8个气象站的日气象资料插值到本区的218个0.25°×0.25°的网格,输出日径流过程,在此基础上进行不同时间尺度的水文模拟可行性研究。结果表明,VIC-3L能在月、年尺度上很好的模拟黄河源区的水文过程,虽然能够在黄河源区的流量范围内较好的模拟其大小的变化,日过程的模拟和实测过程并不是很好,这可能是由于黄河源区内现有的日资料不能代表黄河源区的气象条件的日空间分布,因此建议增加遥感技术在黄河源区的应用。
Hydrologic predictions at Macro-scale, data scarce basins are now a hotspot in hydrologic researches. Hydrological models are important tools in hydrologic prediction, and physical based hydrological models have been widely applied for water cycle researches, watershed water resources planning and management. Whether a specific hydrological model could precisely describe the hydrologic processes of a specific region at a specific time scale depends on the structure of the model and the quality of input data, including hydro-climate data and underlaying surface data. Macro and micro-scale hydrologic predictions in data-scarce basin depend heavily on input data. In this research, a physical based distributed hydrological model VIC-3L was selected to study its adaptability in the source regions of the Yellow River. The total area is 122 000 km^2 and there are only 8 meteorological stations. The study regions were divided into 218 square-cells of 0.25°× 0.25° grids. Forcing data including daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature data from 8 meteorological stations were interpolated into each cell using inverse distance weighted （IDW） method. Runoff of each cell was routed to the regions＇ outlet with a coupled routing model. Simulated and observed runoff at three different time scales （yearly, monthly and daily） of the basins＇ outlet were referred to investigate the feasibility of hydrologic simulation of VIC-3L in this regions. As for the yearly-time-scale, the maximum water balance error of calibration and validation periods are both below 10%, which shows the performance of VIC-3L on this time scale is good. Both Nash - Sutcliffe coefficient and flow duration curve error index （EI） of monthly runoff series can satisfy a certain criterion showing that VIC-3L can reproduce monthly hydrologic process. Although the shape of modeled daily runoff fits well with that of the observed one, Nash - Sutcliffe coefficient and EI cannot pass the standards proving that VIC-3L model in this regions cannot precisely describe the daily runoff with the given daily forcing data. Many resources can contribute to this phenomenon, such as model structure, cell numbers and input data quantity. In the study regions it is mainly because of the insufficient meteorological station that cannot describe daily rainfall spatial distribution. These results show that VIC-3L model can be used as water resource planning and management tools in this regions on yearly or monthly time scale, however if the daily hydrologic processes is required, other data sources are needed. So more meteorological stations should be constructed or other modem monitoring techniques such as remote sensing of micro-wave techniques should be applied in these regions.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第1期87-92,共6页
Resources Science
基金
国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)项目(编号:G1999043601)
关键词
资料稀缺
大尺度
水文模拟
可行性
Data scarce
Macro-scale
Hydrologic simulation
Feasibility
