摘要
流域生态用水分配的合理性来源于生态需水的自身满意度和流域子系统生态用水的协调性,因而评价流域生态用水分配的协调性非常必要。本文应用整体分析法,基于最大概率乘积定理和“木桶法则”,构造了流域生态用水分配系统的协调性评价模型,分析了各子系统生态用水分配的合理度,完善了流域生态用水分配合理性的评价内容和方法。以黄淮海流域为例,得到黄淮海流域生态用水分配协调度分别为0.930 7、0.960 3、0.809 9,均小于协调度为0.996的一般标准,故其协调度都比较低,而流域之间的差异源于子系统生态需水自身满意度的差异程度不同。考虑这种用水协调性,流域生态用水系统的合理性程度在生态需水自身满意度的基础上各有不同程度的降低。利用该模型还可以对未来生态用水分配合理性进行评价,获得最佳分配方案,以获得最大的生态经济效益。
The rationality of ecological water allocation of the river basin is from the self-satisfaction of ecological water requirement and the coordination of ecological water use for its sub-systems, so it is very necessary to analyse and assess the coordination. Applied with the holistic analysis method, based on the theorem of maximal probability multiplication and the principle of cannikin, the paper establishes a coordination model between the sub-systems （river, wetland, lake, city, dryland） within the ecological water allocation system of the river basin. The model shows the rationality of the ecological water allocation in the sub-systems, improves the content and method of assessment for ecological water allocation, and enrlchs the research system in ecological water allocation and ecological water requirement. Through the application in the Yellow River- Huaihe River - Haihe River river basin, it provides poor results. Meanwhile, the coordination value of different river basins is not the same, with the order from high to low Huaihe River, the Yellow River, Haihe River. When the coordination value is lower than that in some kind of criterion, the ecological water allocation should be appropriately modified. Apart from it, the model can assess the rationality of future ecological water allocation, and then get the optimum selection to realize the maximum ecological and economic benefit.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
2006年第1期132-136,共5页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(50239020)资助
关键词
生态用水分配
协调性评价
最大概率乘积定理
合理度
ecological water allocation
coordination assessment
the theorem of maximal probability multiplication
rationality
