摘要
利用近４０年来山东省４１站降水资料，分析了各水资源分区降水演变特征。以均生函数为基函数，用主成分分析原理进行筛选，建立了山东省各水资源分区降水时序多步预测模型。通过计算试验，拟合。
The characteristics of rainfall variation in water resource divisions in Shandong province are analysed using precipitation data of 41 weather stations in recent 40 years.Mean generation function is used as basic function,which is screened through principal component analysis.Multi step predictive models are set up in water resource divisions in term of mean generation function.The forecasting results are rather good through testing and fitting calculation.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第8期16-19,共4页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
省自然科学基金"山东气候变化对水资源影响及对策研究"课题资助
关键词
水资源
降水变化
多步预测
时序模型
characteristics of rainfall variation water resource divisions multi step precipitation prediction
