摘要
全球变暖将会进一步加剧城市气温的上升趋势,近些年我国的城市热岛效应也日益显著,因而研究城市增温对城市电力需求的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。鉴于此采用计量经济学的最新方法分析了北京城市增温与用电需求之间的相互关系,在此基础上建立了北京城市增温与城市用电量的预测模型,从而为电力系统规划和城市能源战略提供一些理论参考和政策建议。
Global warming will result in temperature in urban area. The recent years had witnessed Urban Heat Island Effects in China. Therefore it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of urban warming on the power demand. This paper uses a new method to analyze the relationship between temperature rise and power demand in Beijing. Furthermore a forecast model for power consumption in Beijing was established. The results will help for electric power system planning and urban energy strategy.
出处
《华北电力技术》
CAS
2006年第1期3-7,共5页
North China Electric Power
基金
科技部社会公益类重点项目课题（2003DIA6N017）的资助.
关键词
城市增温
电力需求
协整分析
urban warming
electric power demand
cointegration analysis
