摘要
It is important and necessary to get a much longer precipitation series in order to research features of drought/flood and climate change. Based on dryness and wetness grades series of 18 stations in Northern China of 533 years from 1470 to 2002, the Moving Cumulative Frequency Method （MCFM） was developed, moving average precipitation series from 1499 to 2002 were reconstructed by testing three kinds of average precipitation, and the features of ell mate change and dry and wet periods were researched by using reconstructed precipitation series in the present paper. The results showed that there were good relationship between the reconstructed precipitation series and the observation precipiration series sincc 1954 and their relative root mean-square error were below 1.89%, that the relation between reconstructed series and the dryness and wetness grades series were nonlinear and this nonlinear relation implied that reconstructed series were reliable and could became foundation data for researching evolution of the drought and flood. Analysis of climate change upon reconstructed precipitation series revealed that although drought intensity of recent dry period from mid- dle 1970s of 20th century until early 21st century was not the strongest in historical climate of Northern China, intensity and duration of wet period was a great deal decreasing and shortening respectively, climate evolve to aridification situa- tion in Northern China.
It is important and necessary to get a much longer precipitation series in order to research features of drought/flood and climate change. Based on dryness and wetness grades series of 18 stations in Northern China of 533 years from 1470 to 2002, the Moving Cumulative Frequency Method （MCFM） was developed, moving average precipitation series from 1499 to 2002 were reconstructed by testing three kinds of average precipitation, and the features of ell mate change and dry and wet periods were researched by using reconstructed precipitation series in the present paper. The results showed that there were good relationship between the reconstructed precipitation series and the observation precipiration series sincc 1954 and their relative root mean-square error were below 1.89%, that the relation between reconstructed series and the dryness and wetness grades series were nonlinear and this nonlinear relation implied that reconstructed series were reliable and could became foundation data for researching evolution of the drought and flood. Analysis of climate change upon reconstructed precipitation series revealed that although drought intensity of recent dry period from mid- dle 1970s of 20th century until early 21st century was not the strongest in historical climate of Northern China, intensity and duration of wet period was a great deal decreasing and shortening respectively, climate evolve to aridification situa- tion in Northern China.
基金
ProjectsupportedbytheMinistryofScienceandTechnology(GrantNo:2002DIB20067).
