摘要
针对普通灰色预测模型在预测过程中当历史数据有较大波动时预测精度较差的问题,对两次拟合等维灰色预测模型进行研究,并对其进行改进,通过对华北某地区用电量的建模预测验证其有效性。两次拟合灰色预测模型是利用一次拟合的结果重新建模,经研究发现当历史数据有较大波动时,利用两次拟合灰色预测模型进行预测可以提高模型的精度。
The theory of gray system has been used for mid-long term power load forecasting; the double-fit gray model of forecasting is introduced in the field of load forecasting and typical practical examples. The double-fit gray model is set up based upon the result of gray model. The research showed that the double-fit gray model of forecasting can improve the precision, especially when the annual electricity consumption fluctuates.
出处
《沈阳农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第6期736-738,共3页
Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University
