摘要
对经济高速发展条件下的卫生人力供求关系作量化研究如下:用比较研究法探讨浙江省到2020年卫生人力的发展目标。分析不同时期和不同来源的人口统计数据,对浙江卫生保健的服务人口数进行修正,用卫生人力/人口比值法对卫生人力需求进行仿真预测。研究表明:浙江省的卫生人力与经济发展水平不相适应,从2005年起连续15年医学类专业的年招生数比2004年增加800名,到2020年千人医生数可达发达国家1990年代的平均水平。
This paper makes a quantitative analysis of the supply and demand of the healthcare manpower under the condition of the rapid economic development and discusses the development target for the healthcare manpower till 2020 in Zhejiang Province through a comparative study. Based on the analysis of population accounting data from different period and source, correction is made for the public health service population in Zhejiang Province and a simulated prediction of the demand of the healthcare manpower is made by the specific ratio method of healthcare manpower population. The study shows that the healthcare manpower of Zhejiang Province does not parallel its economic development level, By 2020 the number of doctors per thousand can only reach the average figure of the developed countries in the 1900＇s when the enrollment numbers of medical students will be increased by another 800 each year for 15 consecutive years compared to that of 2004.
出处
《中国高等医学教育》
2005年第6期1-3,共3页
China Higher Medical Education
关键词
卫生人力
供求关系
healthcare manpower
relationship between the supply and demand
