摘要
目的应用地理信息系统(GIS)技术分析中国大陆高致病性禽流感的空间分布特征和探讨疫情发生的相关环境因素。方法收集中国2004年1、2月份高致病性禽流感疫情资料建立数据库,在ArcGIS 8.3软件中与省级、县级行政区划数字地图建立关联,对禽流感疫情的分布进行空间聚类分析、空间统计分析和追踪分析;收集中国气象资料、植被遥感影像及候鸟迁移数据,分析禽流感疫情发生的相关环境因素。结果空间聚类分析显示中国大陆2004年1、2月份禽流感高发区聚集在圆心为东经113.261°、北纬23.119°、半径为1090.52 km的区域内(RR=2.646,P=0.001);空间统计分析显示中国大陆禽流感疫情大都发生在各省(自治区、直辖市)的省会城市及周边地区,并主要分布于一级河流、湖泊周边及沿海区域;环境因素分析显示禽流感疫情发生的当天气温较低、相对湿度和平均气压较高,疫区与中国东、中部候鸟迁徙区的联系密切,疫区1—2月份平均归一化差值植被指数(NDVI)为0 36±0.11。结论中国大陆高致病性禽流感的空间分布为非随机分布,且具有明显的地域聚集性。
Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of highly pathogenic avian influenza （HPAI） and to explore environmental factors associated with HPAI using geographic information system （GIS） techniques in China's Mainland. Methods Databases were set up using the information of HPAI during epidemics in 2004, and linked to digital maps at provincial and county administrative layers in the country through the ArcGIS 8.3 software. Spatial cluster analyses, spatial statistics analyses and tracking analyses on epidemic situation of HPAI were implemented. Environmental factors associated with HPAI were also analyzed on data related to weather, vegetation and migratory birds etc. Results Findings from spatial cluster analyses showed that high incidence area was centralized in 113.261° ordm; east longitude and 23. 119° ordm; north latitude with a radius of 1090.52 kilometers（relative risk= 2.646, P value= 0.001）. Spatial statistical analyses showed that HPAI took place mainly in capital cities of provinces and surrounding areas as well as in the circumference areas of arterial rivers, lakes and seacoasts. Results also showed that HPAI occurrences were associated with low air temperature, high relative humidity and high air pressure as well as with east ＆ central migration routes of migratory birds, The average normalized difference vegetation index was 0,36± 0.11 in epidemic areas of HPAI, Conclusion HPAI was unrandomly distributed and geographically clustered in China.
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第11期839-842,共4页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(30590370)国家科技攻关计划资助项目(2004BA519A32)
关键词
高致病性禽流感
地理信息系统
空间分析
环境因素
Highly pathogenic avian influenza
Geographic information system
Spatial analysis
Environmental factors
