摘要
为客观评价及预测油气管道的腐蚀速度和现状,人们一般采用灰色系统的GM(1,1)理论,但该方法有其固有的缺陷,预测精度不高,初始点的选择不尽合理,文中针对初始点和预测精度问题,运用最小二乘法拟合原理及残差修正理论进行了两处改进,从而提高了预测精度。最后针对某输油管道的实际监测腐蚀速度进行了分析预测,并对方法改进前后的预测结果进行了对比,可以看出预测精度大大提高。
We usually use the traditional GM（ 1,1 ）model to forecast the corrosion velocity in oil and gas pipelines, but the model has not a high precision. This paper gave a new multi- grade remnant GM （ 1,1 ） model to forecast the corrosion velocity, based on the newly modified GM（ 1,1 ）model and the conception of multi-grade remnant. Furthermore, we used this new model to forecast and simulate the corrosion velocity in an oil and gas pipeline. So we draw a conclusion that the multi-grade remnant GM（1,1） model could give a higher simulated and forecasted precision than the traditional one.
出处
《管道技术与设备》
CAS
2005年第5期35-38,共4页
Pipeline Technique and Equipment
基金
四川省重点学科建设项目资助(SZD0416)
关键词
腐蚀速度
预测
多级残差
油气管道
corrosion velocity
forecasting
multi-grade remnant
oil and gas pipeline
