摘要
针对在航材保障工作中经常遇到的过量消耗问题,将灰色预测的方法应用于航材过量消耗,并根据历史数据,建立了GM(1,1)预测模型,对航材过量消耗进行了灾变预测,并给出了以某场站某型液压泵每季度消耗总个数为原始数据的算例,模型检验证明此预测的可行性,根据GM(1,1)模型航材保障部门能够对可能出现的过量消耗器材进行提前筹措.
As far as the material supply is concerned, excessive consumpfion is the most prominent problem that is encountered. In order to solve this problem, a GM （1,1） gray forecast model is introduced to predict the excessive air material consumption in this paper on basis of the historical data. The paper also presents a calculating example using the total consumption number of certains type of hydraulic pump per quarter at a field as the raw data. The model is proved to be feasible and useful for the Air Material Insurance Department to take measures to control the excessive air material consumption in advance.
出处
《西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第3期439-441,共3页
Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
航材
过量消耗时间
GM(1
1)模型
灰色灾变预测
air materiel
excessive consumption time
GM （1,1） model
calamities gray prediction
