摘要
产业系统的整体演化过程可以用一种Logistic方程来描述,并且当模型参数满足一定条件时出现混沌.利用我国能源生产量数据对我国能源产业系统演化过程进行拟合的结果表明,其整体过程呈S型曲线,并由许多小的近似于S型的曲线叠加而成.应用状态空间重构与关联维计算方法,证实了我国能源产业系统的能源生产量时间序列存在混沌性,系统演化具有不规则周期.
The process of industry system evolvement can be described using Logistic equation and appears chaos when some conditions are satisfied with model parameters. Using energy production data of our country fitted the energy sources industry system evolvement process, the conclusion shows that the whole process presents S curve accumulated with a lot of small S curves. The energy production output time series of energy sources industry system shows chaos and system evolvements have irregular periods, which are proved by using state space and correlated dimension computing methods.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第8期5-10,共6页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
