摘要
理论上,证券市场常被称为国民经济的“晴雨表”。本文选取工业增加值、广义货币供应量(M2)、消费者景气指数和国房景气指数等宏观经济指标,深入考察了宏观经济与沪深两市股价走势之间的关系。结果表明,在样本期内股价指数波动与宏观经济变量之间不存在协整性特征,中国证券市场与国民经济之间尚未呈现出稳定的长期均衡关系,证券市场并未发挥“国民经济晴雨表”的功能。这也表明,中国证券市场的宏观协调效率还有待于进一步提高。
Stock market is often called a symptom of the macro-economy weather. The author chose the industrial added value, money supply （M2）, Consumer Sensitive Index and National Housing Sensitive Index as the representative indicators of the macro-economy. And he studied the relationship between these indicators and the stock price indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen, The result shows that there is no cointegration relation between them. Therefore, the study finds no evidence to support the existence of a long-run stable equilibrium relationship between the stock market and Chinese macro-economy. This conclusion gives no proof for Chinese stock market being the symptom of the macro-economy.
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第16期79-85,共7页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"证券市场强外生性下的效率损失及改革路径"
项目编号:03CJY026。
关键词
证券市场
宏观经济
经济晴雨表
协调效率
stock market
macro-economy
symptom of economy weather
coordinating efficiency
