摘要
研究目的:探寻经济高速增长地区土地合理利用的预测理论与方法。研究方法:利用熵权技术和线性加成技术建立了东莞市土地资源可持续利用的评价体系;运用ARCH和ARIM A时间序列分析方法,对未来5年该地区土地利用进行了预测。研究结果:(1)东莞市在1980-2002年经济发展过程中,土地利用总体情况良好,保持在基本可持续发展状态。(2)在未来5年内,东莞市经济增长和土地利用将出现城市人口和基础建设投资过度、建成区面积扩张过快、建设用地适度的局面,说明在建成区面积中,存在大量的闲置土地。研究结论:东莞市闲置土地问题相当严重,应引起相关部门的高度重视并设法改进。
The purpose of the paper is to explore the prediction theory and method regarding rational land use in rapidly developing regions. The evaluation system of sustainable land use was set up by entropy and linear weighting method The ARCH and ARIMA model were applied to predict land use of the next five years. The results show the land use in Dangguan had been generally sustainable while the economy was fast developing during 1980-2002. In the next five years, fast population growth, excessive infrastructure investment and rapid built- up area expansion will emerge while land for construction will be appropriate. There might be large amount of vacant land which shall raise the attention of relevant government departments.
出处
《中国土地科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第4期18-23,共6页
China Land Science
基金
湖北省人文社科重点研究基地开放基金资助项目"珠江三角洲新型工业化与土地资源可持续利用研究"的阶段性成果(20030022)。
