摘要
应用趋势型数据指数平滑模型预测了链子崖危岩体监测点GA的位移量。根据其观测数据呈线性趋势的特点,选取趋势型二次指数平滑的线性预测公式和合适的平滑常数值进行了计算预测。预测结果表明位移预测值与实际观测值之间的误差很小,说明该模型可很好地应用于斜坡变形位移的预测。
The forecasting model of exponential smoothing is applied to predict the displacement values at observation point GA of Lianziya hazardous rock masses in this paper. According to the characteristics of observation values, forecasting formula with linear trend of the twice exponential smoothing, appropriate formulae calculating smoothing coefficients and suitable smoothing constant value are selected and used to make a prediction. The forecasting result shows that the errors between the forecast values and the observation values are very little. It also indicates that this model may be well applied in the forecast of the displacement in the deformation of the slopes.
出处
《地质科技情报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第B07期196-198,共3页
Geological Science and Technology Information
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目"边坡稳定性二元指标体系及应用研究"(40372120)
关键词
指数平滑
斜坡
位移
预测
exponential smoothing
slope
displacement
forecast
